Comment on Perspectives from alleged LSU students by Sean Pitman, M.D..
Eugene Shubert: Sean Pitman: The odds that you will be able to predict the resulting pattern ahead of time, for fair flips of an unbiased coin, is 1 in 2^67 or 1e-20.
Eugene Shubert:
And there is no mathematical theorem which states that such a remarkable prediction couldn’t be fulfilled. Furthermore, if a chimpanzee were to pound on a keyboard long enough, he could type out—on his very first try—the complete works of Shakespeare without a single spelling error.Chimpanzees and popular creationists simply don’t understand the mathematical theory of probability.
Ever hear of the “null hypothesis” Eugene? Upon what basis do scientists, real scientists that is, reject or accept the null hypothesis as being “most likely true”?
What they do is accept or reject hypotheses, all of which are technically “possible”, based on statistical analysis and what level of predictive value is needed, in their own minds anyway, to accept or reject the hypothesis at hand as being “most probable” out of all the available options.
I really can’t believe you brought up the whole “Monkey-typewriter” argument! Sure, while this scenario is technically possible, it is extremely unlikely – so unlikely that if it were to ever happen most real scientists would reject the idea that a real monkey did the job in favor of the idea that there was some higher-level intelligent cheating going on.
Why is that? After all, it is possible that all the works of Shakespeare could be produced by a single monkey on the very first try – – right? There is actually a finite possibility of success for this scenario. The problem in science is that just about anything is possible, but not just anything is likely. Science is about determining what is most likely among many solutions which are all possible, but which are not all equally probable.
Sean Pitman
www.DetectingDesging.com
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Sean Pitman, M.D. Also Commented
Perspectives from alleged LSU students
Eugene Shubert: Untaught Laodiceans are so conceited. Sadly, even children know that you have been lied to. Where did you receive your degree in science? I can easily create an event less probable than 1/10^20. And average high school students of algebra understand why. It only takes flipping a coin 67 times and noting the results.
You clearly don’t understand the concept of predictability. The odds that some pattern will be produced by flipping a coin 67 times is 100%. The odds that you will be able to predict the resulting pattern ahead of time, for fair flips of an unbiased coin, is 1 in 2^67 or 1e-20. Big difference.
Remember, science is based on predictability… on the odds that your predictions will come true.
Sean Pitman
www.DetectingDesign.com
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