@Geanna Dane: Yeah, well some of us want “RELEVANT STATISTICAL …

Comment on Adventists are virtually silent by Sean Pitman.

@Geanna Dane:

Yeah, well some of us want “RELEVANT STATISTICAL ANALYSIS” that a pile of dirt or a single rib can instantly be transformed intoa living breathing talking sweating walking human being. STATISTICS. STATISTICS. STATISTICS. We’re waiting! And when you provide your calculations maybe we’ll provide an alternative set that has a higher probability of success. After all, evolution can only happen statistically based on choices. GIVE US YOUR STATISTICS and we can then devise an alternative model and see which is more likely. Show us the way!

Say you’re really bored one night and decide to play poker with some of your friends who are into that sort of thing. Say one of your “friends” comes up with a royal flush. Could be dumb luck – right? But, say your friend does it again the very next hand, and then again and again… How many times will your friend have to come up with a royal flush before you begin to wonder about your dumb luck hypothesis and determine that the statistical odds for the deliberate cheating hypothesis are starting to become rather overwhelming?

You see, the calculated odds for the ID-only hypothesis are based on past experience with the creative powers of intelligence to manipulate things in very creative ways which go far beyond what any known mindless process is remotely likely to achieve. This is the basis of SETI as well as other ID-based sciences: like forensics or anthropology. Even modern physicists are starting to use this very same argument to argue the need for a God, or at least a God-like intelligence behind the extreme fine tuning of the universe itself (just ask someone like Paul Davies or Freeman Dyson).

You can laugh all you want about the science behind the detection of intelligent design, but such questions are well within the realm of scientific investigation and statistical analysis with regard to the likelihood of the hypothesis vs. the opposing null hypothesis.

Sean Pitman
www.DetectingDesign.com

Sean Pitman Also Commented

Adventists are virtually silent
@Geanna Dane:

“Now, how is it that even you would be able to easily detect design in such a situation? Upon what basis is the conclusion of ID so obvious in such situations? Upon what is it’s predictive value established or calculated? Do you know? If so, please do explain it to me given that I’m so far off base here…” – Sean Pitman

I’ll accept it on faith.. I can’t prove it like you think you can (but still refuse to do).

You have no reason except for completely blind faith that someone drawing aces a few hundred times in a row is obvious doing so via deliberate design? Come on now. Do you think the Las Vegas casino managers are able to figure this sort of thing out, very consistently, based only on faith? Why then do they hire mathematicians and odds analyzers and pay them such large salaries? If all that is needed is blind faith to figure this sort of thing out why waste the money? ; )

Remember now, science isn’t about demonstrating absolute proof. It is about demonstrating a useful degree of predictive value that never reaches the level of absolute perfection. Leaps of “faith” are always required – even in science, when determining what is and what is not most the most likely explanation.

Sean Pitman
www.DetectingDesign.com


Adventists are virtually silent
@Geanna Dane:

PROBABILITY OF A LIVING BREATHING HUMAN ORIGINATING FROM A CLUMP OF DIRT IN TRILLIONS UPON MILLIONS OF YEARS = NONE (YOUR CLEARLY STATED CLAIM)

PROBABILITY OF A LIVING BREATHING HUMAN ORIGINATING FROM A CLUMP OF DIRT INSTANTANEOUSLY = ??? (and the answer is?)

Given that a human being did originate from a clump of dirt, the hypothesis with the greatest predictive value, by far, is the one that includes the involvement of very high level intelligent design. A being with access to extremely high levels of intelligence could easily produce all kinds of things that would appear to us to be miraculous.

How do I know then that very high level ID was the most likely involved in the production of such high levels of functional complexity? It’s turtles all the way up…

You’d say the same thing if I started pulling aces on you for every hand a few hundred times in a row. You’d intuitively know that such a thing could only happen by design with any reasonable degree of predictive value. In other words, I’d be right in my predictions of ID far far more often than anyone betting against me would be right in such a situation. The odds are strongly in my favor here. This is how Las Vegas casinos catch cheaters so effectively…

Now, how is it that even you would be able to easily detect design in such a situation? Upon what basis is the conclusion of ID so obvious in such situations? Upon what is it’s predictive value established or calculated? Do you know? If so, please do explain it to me given that I’m so far off base here…

Sean Pitman
www.DetectingDesign.com


Adventists are virtually silent
@Geanna Dane:

“such questions are well within the realm of scientific investigation and statistical analysis with regard to the likelihood of the hypothesis vs. the opposing null hypothesis.”

So you understand poker, huh? I’m callling your bluff. Give me some statistics. What IS the probability of this very simple event: forming a human out of a pile of dirt. Prove your claims!

If you answer my poker question, I’ll answer your question…

If someone draws aces on you 100 times in a row, what scientific hypothesis caries the greatest predictive value to explain this phenomenon? – deliberate design? or random chance?

Please explain your answer…

Sean Pitman
www.DetectingDesign.com


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I fail to see where you have convincingly supported your claim that the GC leadership contributed to the harm of anyone’s personal religious liberties? – given that the GC leadership does not and could not override personal religious liberties in this country, nor substantively change the outcome of those who lost their jobs over various vaccine mandates. That’s just not how it works here in this country. Religious liberties are personally derived. Again, they simply are not based on a corporate or church position, but rely solely upon individual convictions – regardless of what the church may or may not say or do.

Yet, you say, “Who cares if it is written into law”? You should care. Everyone should care. It’s a very important law in this country. The idea that the organized church could have changed vaccine mandates simply isn’t true – particularly given the nature of certain types of jobs dealing with the most vulnerable in society (such as health care workers for example).

Beyond this, the GC Leadership did, in fact, write in support of personal religious convictions on this topic – and there are GC lawyers who have and continue to write personal letters in support of personal religious convictions (even if these personal convictions are at odds with the position of the church on a given topic). Just because the GC leadership also supports the advances of modern medicine doesn’t mean that the GC leadership cannot support individual convictions at the same time. Both are possible. This is not an inconsistency.