Dr. Jason Rosenhouse wrote (on his own Blog): The question of …

Comment on Dr. Jason Rosenhouse “Among the Creationists” by Sean Pitman.

Dr. Jason Rosenhouse wrote (on his own Blog):

The question of whether natural selection can craft complex adaptions, which Sean is so keen to discuss, is actually both trivial and unimportant. Of course it can craft complexity, what on earth is the reason for thinking it cannot? Proofs of concept are easy to come by. The important question is whether it did craft complex adaptations in natural history. There is rather a lot of evidence to suggest that it did, as I discuss briefly at the end of this post. Not the least of that evidence are the routine successes of adaptationist reasoning in biology.

The reason for thinking that RM/NS cannot “craft complexity”, at least not beyond very low levels of functional complexity, is because sequence space simply is not set up like it would need to be before any “crafting” could take place. In other words, your argument that the beneficial steppingstones in Lake Superior are all closely spaced and lined up in a neat little row simply doesn’t reflect reality. They are not lined up in this manner and there is no rational reason to think that this might have been the case. Your entire theory is, therefore, dependent upon an assumption that doesn’t reflect known reality.

As I noted during the debate, if massive amounts of physical evidence say something happened, but some abstract mathematical model says it cannot happen, then it is the model and not the evidence that should be discarded.

The problem here is that you’re the one presenting a mathematical model that doesn’t represent known empirical reality. My position, on the other hand, is backed up by real observations as to the nature of sequence space. It is therefore your model that is based on an erroneous mathematical model, not mine.

There are three obvious reasons why probability theory has no role to play in validating the creative abilities of natural selection. The first is that there are so many unquantifiable variables in natural history that a meaningful calculation would simply be impossible. Probability calculations take place in the context of a properly defined probability space. This means that you must have a grasp on all the things that might have happened in lieu of the event you are studying, and you must have some basis for assigning a probability distribution to that collection of events. (For example, if you want to know the probability of rolling a one with a six-sided die, you need to know not only that there are six possible outcomes, but also that the die is not loaded in a way that makes certain outcomes more likely than others). Good luck trying to define the appropriate probability space for studying the long-term development of natural history.

The size of sequence space is definitely known for various levels of functional complexity. Also, there is very very good evidence as to the ratio of beneficial vs. non-beneficial sequences in that space. Finally, there is also very good evidence as to the distribution clusters of beneficial sequences within beneficial islands within sequence space – and their minimum likely distances relative to the other islands within that space.

What you are basically saying here is that there is no way to estimate how long it will take for the evolutionary mechanism of RM/NS to produce anything at a given level of functional complexity. Everything you believe is based on “circumstantial evidence” which is largely irrelevant to the actual evolutionary mechanism. In other words, your evidence is largely interpreted as what you think an intelligent designer would or would not do – not upon what your mechanism could or could not do. In short, there really is no science or predictability, from your perspective, with regard to the creative limits or potential of your mechanism. You simply don’t know how to calculate or estimate such potential or limitations. Where then is your “science” when it comes to your assumed mechanism in particular?

The second reason is that it is not clear what you should be finding the probability of. Should we determine the probability of evolving the modern vertebrate eye, or do we care instead about the probability of evolving some kind of organ for using light to glean information about the environment? Any specific adaptation might have a very small probability, but the probability of evolving some representative of a class to which that adaptation belongs could be rather large. So even if you could define an appropriate space, you would still have the problem of determining the relevant event within the space.

Any and all discoveries of new beneficial island or steppingstones count as success. The problem is that all of the various potential solutions to the problem at hand are very far away in sequence space. There is no solution that is significantly closer or more evolvable this side of a practical eternity of time at higher levels of functional complexity – all potentially solutions are far far too far away. That is why your argument that “The probability of evolving some representative of a class to which that adaptation belongs could be rather large” is simply not true. The probability simply is not improved to any significant degree by including all possible solutions to a problem within sequence space. That’s the key point here – all possible solutions, all possible beneficial steppingstones of any kind whatsoever, are too far away from any given starting point within sequence space at higher levels of functional complexity.

This leads naturally into the third problem. Let us suppose you could perform a relevant probability calculation and the result was a very small number. So what? What would that prove? Unlikely events occur all the time, after all. Any particular outcome of billions of years of evolution likely occurs with very small probability, but that is simply irrelevant to determining the credibility of evolution. The particular sequence of heads and tails you get when flipping a coin five hundred times is extremely unlikely, but something had to happen. The endpoints of eons of evolution are very much like that.

I’m genuinely surprised to see a mathematician with an interest in biological evolution produce this common, but mistaken, argument. It’s like saying that one shouldn’t be surprised if Arnold Schwarzenegger happens to win the California Lottery 10 times in a row. After all, unlikely events happen all the time!

You see, this argument, as presented by Dr. Rosenhouse, undermines science in general. It undermines the very concept of predictive value and estimating the likelihood that a particular hypothesis was actually responsible or the true explanation for a particular event.

As another example, let’s say that there are 10 randomly distributed steppingstones, each measuring one meter square, within Lake Superior. Is it possible that a blind swimmer might swim directly from one to the other in a straight line without missing it? Yes, it is possible, but is it likely? Is it possible that this blind swimmer might swim directly to all 10 steppingstones in a row without a single error? Yes, this is also possible, but is it likely?

You see, science isn’t based on what is possible (almost anything is possible). Science is based on what is most likely… which is why this particular point that Dr. Rosenhouse presents highlights a fundamental misunderstanding of the very basis of science itself.

Now, this is the point where ID folks might point to William Dembski, and start going on about “complex specified information.” They might argue that while certain events are of the “something had to happen” sort, others are not. If five hundred heads came up, you would reject the hypothesis that a fair coin had been flipped in a fair manner. Indeed, but that is simply a bad analogy. Dembski’s attempts to define his notion of “specificity” in a useful, non-vague way that can be applied to biology (or much of anything for that matter) have been entirely unsuccessful. The relentless use of the term “complex specified information” by ID proponents, as though this term actually meant anything, is an example of what I meant in saying that evolution’s critics rely frequently on misapplied jargon.

The concept of functional or meaningful complexity is defined by many others besides Dembski – to include a number of mainstream scientists. And, the concept is not too hard to understand. Basically, it is based on the minimum size requirement to achieve a particular type of function, combined with the limitations or minimum flexibility allowed for the characters in the sequence as far as their arrangement is concerned. This is where the concept of “specificity” comes into play. It simply isn’t enough to have all the right characters for a sequence. These characters must also be properly arranged, relative to each other in 3D space, before the function in question can be realized to any useful or selectable degree of functionality.

I fail to see how the meaning for this concept is unclear? It is very clear. It is so clear in fact that small children can understand it. And, what is interesting and relevant here, is what a linear increase in the minimum size and/or specificity requirement of a meaningful/functional sequence does to the overall ratio of potentially meaningful/beneficial sequences in sequence space with the same minimum structural threshold requirements – i.e., the ratio of these sequences is reduced, exponentially, relative to the number of non-meaningful/non-functional sequences of any and all kinds.

I don’t know why Sean makes such a fetish of probability. During the debate he said that my refusal to supply a probability calculation somehow rendered evolution unscientific, which is rather bizarre. Probability theory is wonderful stuff (my first book was mostly about probability theory) but it is hardly the last word on what is science and what is not.

Again, as mentioned in our debate, science is and must be based on probability in all of its claims. Your notion that something only needs to be shown to be possible to be a scientific conclusion is simply not a scientific argument. One must also demonstrate the likelihood, not just the possibility, of a particular event to occur within a given span of time. If you can’t do this, then you just don’t have a scientific theory with regard to the creative potential of your Darwinian mechanism at various levels of functional complexity. You simply don’t know and cannot say how it will work or how long it will take for your mechanism to do anything at any level of functional complexity. All you have are bold claims, unsupported by either demonstration or relevant statistical calculations or extrapolations, regarding the creative potential of your mechanism.

I certainly agree that natural selection has never been observed to produce something as complex as the vertebrate eye. Intelligent agents have never been observed to bring universes into being or to create life from scratch, but Sean has no trouble believing that occurred. The fact remains that there is voluminous circumstantial evidence supporting the claim that natural selection can in principle and has in natural history produced complex adaptations. When you contrast this with the perfect vacuum of evidence supporting the existence of intelligent designers who can do what ID folks say they can do, it becomes clear why scientists are all but unanimous in preferring evolution over intelligent design.

What circumstantial evidence are you talking about that actually suggests that your mechanism of RM/NS did what you claim it did? Remember, arguing for common descent isn’t the same thing as arguing that your mechanism was responsible for the required changes over time. These arguments are often confused by evolutionists, but they simply aren’t the same thing.

As far as your argument that ID has never been observed to do certain things, therefore extrapolations are necessary, I agree – hence the title of my book, “Turtles All the Way Down.”

As the title of my book suggests, it’s either “turtles all the way up” or “turtles all the way down”. You claim that a mindless mechanism is the most likely explanation for all that exists while I claim that an intelligence source is the most likely explanation. In order to determine which claim is most likely true, one is required to extrapolate from very limited information. However, I believe that a reasonable extrapolation is possible based on what is currently known about which way the turtles are going.

In other words, is RM/NS known to be more or less creative than what known intelligent agents (i.e., humans) are able to produce? The answer is quite clear. The mechanism of RM/NS is far far less creative, in a given amount of time (observable time) than is ID. Intelligence can create very complex machines in very short order. This simply isn’t true for RM/NS.

The obvious question is, why not? Why is ID so much quicker than RM/NS beyond very low levels of functional complexity? Why does the mechanism of RM/NS show a truly exponential decline in creative ability with each linear step up the ladder of functional complexity? Well, the answer is quite clear for anyone who has carefully considered the nature of sequence space and noticed the exponential decline in potentially beneficial vs. non-beneficial and isolated nature of clusters or islands of sequences with the same type of function – and how this isolation becomes exponentially more and more dramatic with each step up the ladder of functional complexity.

This observation can be extrapolated to get a very good idea as to the limitations of mindless mechanisms like RM/NS.
The same is true of ID. There are various levels of intelligence and knowledge. The ancient peopled would have considered some of our technology “miraculous” from their perspective. And, there is therefore no reason to doubt that a few thousand years from now discoveries will be made that will seem truly miraculous from our current perspective.

Therefore, it seems like there is no theoretical limit for the creative potential of intelligent design, while there is a very clear limitation, that is actually measurable, for RM/NS.

Sean Pitman Also Commented

Dr. Jason Rosenhouse “Among the Creationists”
I have no fear, thanks to God and His mercy, and no one is free of bias – not even you. You’ve simply traded one religion for another. It is still possible that your current bias blinds you to what would otherwise be obvious.


Dr. Jason Rosenhouse “Among the Creationists”

No, I think science would have discredited them if their ideas were not supported by observation and experimentation.

Exactly, so why not at least try to do the same for my ideas, which are quite easily falsifiable?

I know, you can’t do it yourself, but you’re quite sure that if I publish my ideas in a mainstream science journal that someone out there will know how to shoot my theory all to shreds. Right? This sounds like a no-brainer! Why not just published my ideas and test them against the big boys? It must be that I’m afraid to get shot down! and that’s why I don’t publish… Don’t you think?

I guess that’s why I went on live radio to debate Jason Rosenhouse? – because I was afraid that he’d show me how silly my ideas are on public radio? – how the Darwinian mechanism is so clearly capable of creating all kinds of things regardless of their level of functional complexity? If I was so afraid of getting smashed to pieces by some of these Darwinian big shots, why take such public risks? – even in their own blogs and public forums? Why not just hide out in my own little ghetto?

Come on now. You have to know that I’d love to be able to publish my ideas on the statistical limits to the Darwinian mechanism in a science journal like Nature or Science or any mainstream science journal. I really would. The problem, as I’ve already explained, is that no one is going to publish, in any mainstream science journal, any argument for intelligent design or creative intelligence (even if the intelligence were a “natural” intelligence like some kind of intelligent alien life form) as the origin of various kinds of biological machines. It just doesn’t happen these days without someone getting fired over it. So, the next best thing is to take the argument directly to them and challenge them in their own blogs, on the radio, and on television, etc. There’s nothing else I can do. My hands are tied.

In any case, do let me know when you’re willing to reasonably define what it would take for you to recognize a phenomenon as a true “miracle” or when you’re able to present something, anything, that explains how the Darwinian mechanism of RM/NS can actually work beyond very low level of functional complexity.

Until then, what are you really contributing here? What are you trying to say? – that you don’t know but someone else probably does? That you’re skeptical about everything and nothing could possibly convince you of the existence of God or any other designer of life? – not even if you were to personally witness some of the most fantastic miracles described in the Bible? Good luck with that… but you’re just fooling yourself in your efforts never to be tricked by anything. You’re missing out on a great deal that life has to offer.

Still, I wish you all the best.


Dr. Jason Rosenhouse “Among the Creationists”
All the best to you… yet again 😉


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