“Suspending Judgment” @Brad: Note also that this entails that design can …

Comment on Elliot Sober: Just Don’t Call the Designer “God” by Sean Pitman.

“Suspending Judgment”

@Brad:

Note also that this entails that design can not be supported merely by showing phenomena to have low probability conditional on the evolutionary hypothesis. Rather, it must be shown that those phenomena have higher probability conditional on the design hypothesis.

Sober’s objection to the argument is deceptively simple. It is that we have no independent evidence for Pr(O │ Design), and so cannot justify the claim that Pr(O │ Design) > Pr(O │ Chance). This objection can be subdivided into two points.

First, in order to estimate the likelihood of some observation conditional on design, we need to know both the goals and abilities of the designer.

How does this statement not undermine the efforts of SETI scientists? After all, it is not possible to know the goals and abilities of the ETI designers simply by viewing a radio signal with a narrow band spectrum or one that is prefaced with the “first 50 terms of the ever popular Fibonacci series”. Yet, according to top SETI scientists, like Seth Shostak, such mathematical tags or such spectrum features would clearly support the hypothesis of deliberate artifact – without knowing the goals or anything else about the proposed alien intelligence(s).

For ordinary design inferences, we do this by inductive inference from cases with which we are familiar. Sober’s first point is that this ordinary form of inductive inference is unavailable for biological design arguments, since we do not have any instances of agents with abilities of the required magnitude. Since we have no instances, we simply have no idea what their goals would be. That is, we have no independent evidence of creatures existing before the biological systems in question, and capable of engineering those systems. So we have no idea what they would be likely to build if they existed. So we have no way of estimating Pr(O │ Design).

The very same thing is true of the ETI that SETI scientists are looking for…

Moreover, there is an additional obstacle to this form of inductive inference if we attempt to infer to a supernatural designer or designers. For in the case of natural designers we at least have the possibility of appealing to some general naturalistic constraints on their goals and abilities, while in the case of a supernatural designer we have no such constraints.

We aren’t talking about invoking the necessity of the supernatural here. We are only talking about the ability to detect the need for at least human-level intelligence and creativity; and maybe a little beyond to some sort of alien intelligence with a bit more technological advancement.

Second, while it is easy to arbitrarily define a class of design hypotheses such that the probability of the observations conditional on that class is high, it is just as easy to arbitrarily define a class of non-design hypotheses such that the probability of the observations conditional on that class is high. So some independent motivation is required to justify the particular hypotheses invoked in the argument. But in the case of the biological design argument, we have no such independent evidence. So again, we have no way of estimating Pr(O │ Design).

Again, the same thing is true for SETI.

Here I think it is helpful to consider the possibility of overlooked naturalistic explanations for the observations in question. Just as for all we know there are possible designers who would build what we see and possible designers who would not, so there are natural processes that would result in what we see and those that would not. Absent independent evidence for the existence of any of these, we are in no position to comparatively assess their probabilities against each other.

The advantage that SETI has in answering this challenge is that while we may not know of why a designer would produce a particular phenomenon, we do know how a designer might produce the phenomenon in question while, at the same time, we have no idea how any non-intelligence process would be able to do the same thing…

1a. We find a watch in a field. We have independent evidence of the existence of designers with the goals and abilities requisite for building watches, and thereby know that the likelihood of the watch conditional on the existence of those designers is vastly higher than the probability of the watch conditional on chance. So the observation supports design.

In other words, you’ve seen humans build watches before. I’ve also seen humans produce natural-looking gardens and natural-looking artificial stones for decorating which cannot readily be distinguished from what non-intelligent process of nature can produce. So, it is not enough to simply say that the watch is obviously designed because you’ve seen humans make watches. You must also show that the watch is clearly beyond the known limits of what non-intelligent natural forces can also produce. In other words, you have to appeal to the ID-only hypothesis here.

1b. We come across a Shakespearean sonnet, or find the pansies in a yard spelling the phrase, “Good Morning. We hope you have a great day!”. The inference is identical to 1a.

Indeed – but only because these features are known to be within the realm of at least human level ID while being well outside of the known realm of mindless production.

This is why I brought up the situation of the highly symmetrical polished granite cube measuring 1 meter on each side. Such a cube would be considered by the vast majority of scientist to be a clear artifact – regardless of where in the universe it happened to be found. If it was found on Earth, the obvious assumption would be that some human made it. If it was found by one of our rovers on Mars, the obvious assumption would be that some intelligent alien made it – and it would hit the front page of every newspaper in the world. You know it, and I know it. You also know that this would happen even without having independent evidence of the existence of the proposed alien intelligence much less the motives of this alien intelligence.

3. We find smooth and symmetrical granite blocks in a place where it is extremely unlikely that they were produced by humans. All of the natural processes we know confer very low likelihoods on this and we have no idea whether there are other natural processes capable of producing them, though we also have no reason to think the hypotheses we are aware of exhaust the possibilities. We also have no independent evidence of the goals and abilities of hypothetical designers of these blocks. In sum, we are in a position where we are unable to assign determinate probabilities to any hypothesis that gives a non-infinitesimal likelihood. So we rightly suspend judgement on what the evidence supports.

“Suspend judgment”?! Is that your final answer? Really? There is no way to determine ID regarding anything where humans are not known to be directly involved? Based on observing only the phenomenon in question?

How do you not see that this argument is obviously inconsistent? You know as well as I do that if a highly symmetrical polished granite cube, measuring 1 meter on each side, were found on Mars, say with a geometric etching in each face, everyone would assume ID. No one would simply “suspend judgment” like you suggest.

Do you not realize that this is in fact the basis of SETI? Seth Shostak is a senior astronomer at the SETI institute. According to him, a radio signal that is tagged with some mathematical pattern, like the first 50 terms of pi or the Fibonacci series would clearly be “artificial” – a product of non-human intelligence. This is without knowing anything else about the alien intelligence or the motives or technology involved. The very same argument as I use for the highly symmetrical granite cube is also used by SETI scientists when it comes to narrow band radio signals being obviously artificial.

I’m sorry, but you are not being consistent. If you support the basis of SETI, I do not see how you can reasonably make the arguments you are making here. Your other arguments regarding biology in particular are irrelevant if we cannot get past this basic problem of apparent inconsistency regarding the general basis of detecting artifacts as artifacts regardless of where they happen to be found in the universe…

Sean Pitman
www.DetectingDesign.com

Sean Pitman Also Commented

Elliot Sober: Just Don’t Call the Designer “God”
@Professor Kent:

My understanding is that, historically, Adventist fundamental beliefs have shifted in ways that individuals holding one particular position, including Ellen White herself at times, could have been expelled from the Church by those holding another particular position. There was a time when those of the Church held different views on what 24-hour period of the day should be kept as Sabbath (it wasn’t always sunset to sunset); the Godhead (we once rejected the trinity); and righteousness by faith (we once believed in righteousness by works).

These disagreements occurred before certain agreed positions were so settled in the minds of the founding fathers and mothers of the SDA Church that they became “fundamental” pillars of the SDA faith. The current list of fundamentals was not always as it currently stands. It grew and developed over time. It is only expected that as more information comes clearly to light that the list of important “fundamental” beliefs would also expand over time.

And, as the early Church founders soon discovered, without the maintenance of internal order, discipline, and government within the Church, as based on the concept of “present truth”, as understood by the organized body of believers, the organization soon begins to fragment towards chaos and irrelevance…

Sean Pitman
www.DetectingDesign.com


Elliot Sober: Just Don’t Call the Designer “God”
@Professor Kent:

Sean, while I could agree with your statement on a prima facie basis, I think one needs to dig a bit deeper here. This statement basically says that we don’t need the Bible or any type of falsifiable evidence or even beliefs to gain admission to heaven, which seems to contradict what you often state (not to mention the purpose of this website). I could be wrong, but I believe that God is able to claim souls who lack knowledge in Him because he can judge whether they would accept Him and Christ’s sacrifice if they had representative knowledge of Him.

Exactly…

It just goes to show that it is motive, not current knowledge or beliefs, that is important when it comes to judging if a person is or is not savable.

This idea does not contradict my efforts to uphold truth as I see it. Just because knowledge is not the basis of salvation does not mean that it isn’t important. Knowledge is the basis of the solid conscious hope of the Gospel message. While one can be saved without ever having a conscious knowledge of this future glory while here on Earth, it sure would be nice to have known while here – right?

I’m not convinced that God saves them because they have “love;” after all, many animals give well-documented evidence of having love, which is an instinct written in the genes of many life forms, including most humans (I’ve met a few who could be exceptions). I suspect that He who knows us in the womb can discern much more than our love, and recognizes what our choice would be given an opportunity to know Him and serve Him.

Our moral choices are based on motive, not knowledge. While animals do express love and devotion to their masters, they cannot appreciate moral freedom as we humans can. They have not been given moral responsibility or choice as we have been given it. Free moral choices are based on the motive of love – of doing unto others as you would like to be treated because of your love for your neighbor.

Remember, it was Jesus who pointed out that all the Law and the Prophets were built on the single “Royal Law”, and James put it, of Love – love to both God and toward our neighbors. Matthew 22:39-40 NIV.

And, as Paul points out, those who love their neighbors as themselves fulfill the Law and are therefore savable – regardless of their knowledge or lack thereof regarding the particulars of God’s existence, the life and death of Jesus, His true character, or any other doctrinal truths while in this life. Romans 13:8-10 NIV.

Sean Pitman
www.DetectingDesign.com


Elliot Sober: Just Don’t Call the Designer “God”
@Professor Kent:

Like the vast majority of readers here, I don’t need a scientific basis for my faith, and I believe I can be saved by it however “blind” it may be.

Salvation is based on love, not blind faith – or faith of any kind for that matter. It is for this reason that even those who have never heard the name of Jesus or had any real concept of God can be saved according to how they expressed the Royal Law of Love toward their neighbors – a law which has been written on the hearts of all. This is why I believe that there will be a number of very surprised atheists in Heaven someday…

Faith or belief is the basis of conscious hope, but not of salvation. If you have faith that can move mountains, but have not love, you have gained nothing… 1 Corinthians 13:2 NIV.

Sean Pitman
www.DetectingDesign.com


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